Episode
Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Recession Signal Again
- Published
- Jul 22, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 473
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Summary
The yield curve has been uninverted since late 2024, but Lucas and Luna explain why that's actually a classic recession warning — not an all-clear. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% and the 2-year at 4.37%, the spread is 26 basis points. Historically, every recession since the 1970s has been preceded by a curve uninversion. The hosts dissect why this time feels different — and why it might not be — using data on Fed policy, jobless claims at 208,000, and a 4.2% unemployment rate. They also touch on the Fed's interest on reserve balances rate staying at 3.65% and what that means for bank lending. A tight, data-driven conversation about the most misunderstood signal in macro. #YieldCurve #Uninversion #RecessionSignal #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #InterestRates #TwoYearTreasury #TenYearTreasury #BondMarket #EconomicForecast #MacroEconomics #JoblessClaims #Unemployment #FedFundsRate #IOER #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo