# Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Recession Signal Again

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/why-the-yield-curve-uninversion-is-a-recession-signal-again
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/why-the-yield-curve-uninversion-is-a-recession-signal-again.md
Podcast: [The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824)
Published: 2026-07-22T07:57:30+00:00
Episode link: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/episode-0126.mp3
Audio file: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/episode-0126.mp3
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Duration seconds: 473

## Resource

The yield curve has been uninverted since late 2024, but Lucas and Luna explain why that's actually a classic recession warning — not an all-clear. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% and the 2-year at 4.37%, the spread is 26 basis points. Historically, every recession since the 1970s has been preceded by a curve uninversion. The hosts dissect why this time feels different — and why it might not be — using data on Fed policy, jobless claims at 208,000, and a 4.2% unemployment rate. They also touch on the Fed's interest on reserve balances rate staying at 3.65% and what that means for bank lending. A tight, data-driven conversation about the most misunderstood signal in macro. #YieldCurve #Uninversion #RecessionSignal #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #InterestRates #TwoYearTreasury #TenYearTreasury #BondMarket #EconomicForecast #MacroEconomics #JoblessClaims #Unemployment #FedFundsRate #IOER #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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