{"podcast":{"title":"The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next","slug":"the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824","podcast_index_feed_id":7871824,"rss_url":"https://feeds.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast.xml","website_url":"https://www.fexingo.com/","image_url":"https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/cover.png","author":"Fexingo","episode_count":130,"summary":"Every weekday, Lucas and Luna sit down at the forecast desk to examine the macroeconomic forces shaping the next quarter, the next year, and the next decade. They don't trade in headlines or market chatter. Instead, they walk through the actual data releases—CPI prints, payroll reports, PMI surveys, central-bank statements—and debate what the numbers mean for investors, business leaders, and policymakers. Lucas, the lead, draws on a journalist's instinct for what matters; Luna, the engaged interlocutor, pushes back with the skepticism of a veteran analyst. Together they dissect fan-of-possibilities projections from the Fed and the IMF, weigh the odds of recession versus soft landing, and trace how shifts in fiscal policy ripple through bond markets, currencies, and capital flows. The listener is someone who already knows the difference between a basis point and a percentage point, who reads central-bank minutes for fun, and who wants a conversation that treats macroeconomics as a discipline—not a spectator sport. Each episode leaves you with one specific question: given what we know today, which of those branching forecast paths is most likely, and why? #Macroeconomics #FederalRes…","last_synced_at":"2026-07-24T16:18:28.846810+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824"},"episode":{"title":"Why the Yield Curve Uninversion Is a Recession Signal Again","slug":"why-the-yield-curve-uninversion-is-a-recession-signal-again","published_at":"2026-07-22T07:57:30+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/why-the-yield-curve-uninversion-is-a-recession-signal-again","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824","url":"https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/episode-0126.mp3","audio_url":"https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-economic-forecast-podcast/episode-0126.mp3","summary":"The yield curve has been uninverted since late 2024, but Lucas and Luna explain why that's actually a classic recession warning — not an all-clear. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% and the 2-year at 4.37%, the spread is 26 basis points. Historically, every recession since the 1970s has been preceded by a curve uninversion. The hosts dissect why this time feels different — and why it might not be — using data on Fed policy, jobless claims at 208,000, and a 4.2% unemployment rate. They also touch on the Fed's interest on reserve balances rate staying at 3.65% and what that means for bank lending. A tight, data-driven conversation about the most misunderstood signal in macro. #YieldCurve #Uninversion #RecessionSignal #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #InterestRates #TwoYearTreasury #TenYearTreasury #BondMarket #EconomicForecast #MacroEconomics #JoblessClaims #Unemployment #FedFundsRate #IOER #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo","meta_description":"The yield curve has been uninverted since late 2024, but Lucas and Luna explain why that's actually a classic recession warning — not an all-clear. With t…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":473,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/episodes/why-the-yield-curve-uninversion-is-a-recession-signal-again/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-economic-forecast-podcast-with-fexingo-predictions-outlooks-and-what-s-coming-next-7871824/why-the-yield-curve-uninversion-is-a-recession-signal-again.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}