Episode

Mystics and Statistics - Why is prediction hard?

Podcast
The Collators
Published
Nov 26, 2025
Duration seconds
3437
Processing state
not_requested
Canonical source
https://thecollators.com/s1e13
Audio
https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/2e8c179d-6d2c-4b0b-a52f-0ba80b14fdac/20250912.mp3?dest-id=5118630
JSON
/v1/public/podcasts/the-collators-7459521/episodes/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard
Markdown
/podcast/the-collators-7459521/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard.md

Actions

  • POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-collators-7459521/episodes/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard/transcription-requests
    Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.
  • GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-collators-7459521/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard.md
    Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.

Summary

In this episode, Mark and Howard explore why forecasting is so often wrong and what prediction really requires. From homicides to the stock market, prediction sounds simple until the future fights back. Statistics and logic can take you far, but judgement, context, and humility do the rest.