# Mystics and Statistics - Why is prediction hard?

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-collators-7459521/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-collators-7459521/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard.md
Podcast: [The Collators](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-collators-7459521)
Published: 2025-11-26T08:38:00+00:00
Episode link: https://thecollators.com/s1e13
Audio file: https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/2e8c179d-6d2c-4b0b-a52f-0ba80b14fdac/20250912.mp3?dest-id=5118630
Processing state: not_requested
JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-collators-7459521/episodes/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard
Duration seconds: 3437

## Resource

In this episode, Mark and Howard explore why forecasting is so often wrong and what prediction really requires. From homicides to the stock market, prediction sounds simple until the future fights back. Statistics and logic can take you far, but judgement, context, and humility do the rest.

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## Transcript

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