{"podcast":{"title":"The Collators","slug":"the-collators-7459521","podcast_index_feed_id":7459521,"rss_url":"https://feeds.libsyn.com/589500/rss","website_url":"https://sites.libsyn.com/589500","image_url":"https://static.libsyn.com/p/assets/b/f/7/f/bf7f138e1bd05fa1d959afa2a1bf1c87/c5large.png","author":"Mark Lockwood","episode_count":35,"summary":"Dive into the philosophy and practice of analysis and information sharing, with insights from leaders in tech, academia, intelligence and beyond on how they make sense of the world. Hosts Mark and Howard draw on experience in intelligence, law enforcement and academia to unpack the ideas and methods that shape understanding. Thoughtful but accessible, it's a podcast for anyone who wants to sharpen their thinking in a complex, fast-changing world.","last_synced_at":"2026-08-01T14:23:34.655409+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-collators-7459521"},"episode":{"title":"Mystics and Statistics - Why is prediction hard?","slug":"mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard","published_at":"2025-11-26T08:38:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-collators-7459521/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-collators-7459521","url":"https://thecollators.com/s1e13","audio_url":"https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/2e8c179d-6d2c-4b0b-a52f-0ba80b14fdac/20250912.mp3?dest-id=5118630","summary":"In this episode, Mark and Howard explore why forecasting is so often wrong and what prediction really requires. From homicides to the stock market, prediction sounds simple until the future fights back. Statistics and logic can take you far, but judgement, context, and humility do the rest.","meta_description":"In this episode, Mark and Howard explore why forecasting is so often wrong and what prediction really requires. From homicides to the stock market, predic…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3437,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-collators-7459521/episodes/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-collators-7459521/mystics-and-statistics-why-is-prediction-hard.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}