Episode
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Oil’s tariff playbook'
- Podcast
- UBS On-Air: Market Moves
- Published
- Jul 27, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 329
- Processing state
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Summary
The policy pattern of the trade war is echoed in the policy pattern of the ongoing Gulf war. In 2025, US threats over tariffs provoked market reactions, leading to a policy retreat in the face of those reactions. Escalating Gulf violence pushed oil prices over USD100/barrel, leading to a policy shift by the US. The risk with this process is that as investors anticipate a policy retreat, the market reaction becomes more muted over time and applies less pressure for policy change.