# UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Oil’s tariff playbook'

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/ubs-on-air-market-moves-2992243/ubs-on-air-paul-donovan-daily-audio-oil-s-tariff-playbook
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/ubs-on-air-market-moves-2992243/ubs-on-air-paul-donovan-daily-audio-oil-s-tariff-playbook.md
Podcast: [UBS On-Air: Market Moves](https://stenobird.com/podcast/ubs-on-air-market-moves-2992243)
Published: 2026-07-27T07:14:21+00:00
Episode link: https://www.ubs.com/content/dam/podcasts/wma/260727-oils-tariff-playbook.mp3
Audio file: https://www.ubs.com/content/dam/podcasts/wma/260727-oils-tariff-playbook.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/ubs-on-air-market-moves-2992243/episodes/ubs-on-air-paul-donovan-daily-audio-oil-s-tariff-playbook
Duration seconds: 329

## Resource

The policy pattern of the trade war is echoed in the policy pattern of the ongoing Gulf war. In 2025, US threats over tariffs provoked market reactions, leading to a policy retreat in the face of those reactions. Escalating Gulf violence pushed oil prices over USD100/barrel, leading to a policy shift by the US. The risk with this process is that as investors anticipate a policy retreat, the market reaction becomes more muted over time and applies less pressure for policy change.

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## Transcript

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