Episode
#384 Henrik Zeberg: While Markets Rally, a Recession Signal Just Quietly Triggered
- Podcast
- The Julia La Roche Show
- Published
- Jul 2, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3080
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update to argue that markets and the economy are telling two completely different stories. While equities keep melting up toward a likely blow-off top, his models show the "quiet hand" of the real economy — labor market deterioration, rising full-time job losses, record credit card delinquencies, and a struggling housing sector — already rolling over into what he calls a structural recession. He walks through his indicator framework, explains why he's not calling an imminent recession yet (two more liquidity and yield signals are needed), and lays out his "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" for when he'd fully rotate out of stocks into bonds. The conversation also covers his contrarian views on inflation (he thinks disinflation, not inflation, is coming), his skepticism on Bitcoin's long-term value despite expecting a short-term bounce, a near-term gold and dollar bounce followed by major dollar strength, and his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/ Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201 TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro: welcoming back Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at SwissBlock 01:05 – Recap: the rally he called last quarter played out as predicted 01:36 – Stock market hasn't topped, but the real economy is quietly rolling over 03:50 –…