{"podcast":{"title":"The Julia La Roche Show","slug":"the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803","podcast_index_feed_id":5842803,"rss_url":"https://anchor.fm/s/41aa63c4/podcast/rss","website_url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche","image_url":"https://d3t3ozftmdmh3i.cloudfront.net/production/podcast_uploaded_nologo/10916857/10916857-1660085096509-ec2c80bf0ad2a.jpg","author":"Julia La Roche","episode_count":395,"summary":"Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on \"The Julia La Roche Show\" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.","last_synced_at":"2026-07-24T00:18:02.386758+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803"},"episode":{"title":"#384 Henrik Zeberg: While Markets Rally, a Recession Signal Just Quietly Triggered","slug":"384-henrik-zeberg-while-markets-rally-a-recession-signal-just-quietly-triggered","published_at":"2026-07-02T10:00:00+00:00","page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/384-henrik-zeberg-while-markets-rally-a-recession-signal-just-quietly-triggered","show_page_url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803","url":"https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/julia-la-roche/episodes/384-Henrik-Zeberg-While-Markets-Rally--a-Recession-Signal-Just-Quietly-Triggered-e3lhkrt","audio_url":"https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO6244817811.mp3","summary":"Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update to argue that markets and the economy are telling two completely different stories. While equities keep melting up toward a likely blow-off top, his models show the "quiet hand" of the real economy — labor market deterioration, rising full-time job losses, record credit card delinquencies, and a struggling housing sector — already rolling over into what he calls a structural recession. He walks through his indicator framework, explains why he's not calling an imminent recession yet (two more liquidity and yield signals are needed), and lays out his "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" for when he'd fully rotate out of stocks into bonds. The conversation also covers his contrarian views on inflation (he thinks disinflation, not inflation, is coming), his skepticism on Bitcoin's long-term value despite expecting a short-term bounce, a near-term gold and dollar bounce followed by major dollar strength, and his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/ Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201 TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro: welcoming back Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at SwissBlock 01:05 – Recap: the rally he called last quarter played out as predicted 01:36 – Stock market hasn't topped, but the real economy is quietly rolling over 03:50 –…","meta_description":"Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update to argue that markets and th…","key_points":[],"chapters":[],"topics":[],"duration_seconds":3080,"processing_state":"not_requested","actions":[{"name":"request_transcript","method":"POST","url":"https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/episodes/384-henrik-zeberg-while-markets-rally-a-recession-signal-just-quietly-triggered/transcription-requests","description":"Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode."},{"name":"read_markdown","method":"GET","url":"https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-julia-la-roche-show-5842803/384-henrik-zeberg-while-markets-rally-a-recession-signal-just-quietly-triggered.md","description":"Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource."}]}}