Episode
Why the Fed Is Watching the Breakeven Rate Spread Now
- Published
- Jul 14, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 506
- Processing state
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Summary
Episode 113 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into a specific signal the Fed is watching closely in July 2026: the spread between the 2-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates. With the 2-year breakeven at 2.26% and the 10-year at 2.26%, the flat term structure of inflation expectations is unusual historically. They explore what this means for Fed credibility, the risk of de-anchoring, and why the flatness matters more than the level alone. Anchored to current data: CPI at 334.0, core CPI at 336.1, and the 10-year breakeven rising to 2.26% from 2.24%. No previous episode covered the breakeven spread. Approximately 9 minutes. #FederalReserve #BreakevenInflation #InflationExpectations #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #CPI #CoreCPI #TenYearBreakeven #TwoYearBreakeven #InflationTermStructure #FedCredibility #DeAnchoring #Economics #Macro #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RateOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo