# Why the Fed Is Watching the Breakeven Rate Spread Now

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696/why-the-fed-is-watching-the-breakeven-rate-spread-now
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696/why-the-fed-is-watching-the-breakeven-rate-spread-now.md
Podcast: [The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy](https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696)
Published: 2026-07-14T05:38:45+00:00
Episode link: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-federal-reserve-podcast/episode-0113.mp3
Audio file: https://audio.fexingo.com/business/the-federal-reserve-podcast/episode-0113.mp3
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JSON: https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-federal-reserve-podcast-with-fexingo-interest-rates-fomc-meetings-and-monetary-policy-7871696/episodes/why-the-fed-is-watching-the-breakeven-rate-spread-now
Duration seconds: 506

## Resource

Episode 113 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into a specific signal the Fed is watching closely in July 2026: the spread between the 2-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates. With the 2-year breakeven at 2.26% and the 10-year at 2.26%, the flat term structure of inflation expectations is unusual historically. They explore what this means for Fed credibility, the risk of de-anchoring, and why the flatness matters more than the level alone. Anchored to current data: CPI at 334.0, core CPI at 336.1, and the 10-year breakeven rising to 2.26% from 2.24%. No previous episode covered the breakeven spread. Approximately 9 minutes. #FederalReserve #BreakevenInflation #InflationExpectations #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #CPI #CoreCPI #TenYearBreakeven #TwoYearBreakeven #InflationTermStructure #FedCredibility #DeAnchoring #Economics #Macro #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RateOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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