Episode
Living with a 50% P(AI Doom) — Liron Shapira and Peter Clarke
- Podcast
- Doom Debates!
- Published
- Jul 2, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 2995
- Processing state
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Summary
Peter Clarke ( Team Futurism ) invited me on his podcast to probe the worldview of a Yudkowskian, and I ended up explaining how my 50% P(Doom) and 10% P(Foom) informs my choices. Peter and I met at LessOnline 2026, where he was one of the participants in a live Jubilee-style debate about x-risk. This one’s a little tamer, but we still cover plenty of ground, like: Why nuclear risk is underrated yet AI doom overshadows it; Why nobody at AI summits is appropriately freaked out; How Yudkowsky’s data center “airstrike” claim gets mischaracterized; Why a superintelligence that doesn’t already value humanity won’t spare us; And the “Icarus curve”, my techno-optimist forecast pre-superintelligence. Subscribe to the Team Futurism podcast — https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554 Timestamps 00:00:00 — Welcoming Liron on Team Futurism 00:00:38 — How Liron Got Yudkowsky-Pilled 00:04:11 — AI 2027 and the Next Qualitative Breakthrough 00:05:52 — What’s Your P(Doom)? 00:10:22 — Why Isn’t Everyone Freaked Out? 00:13:09 — How Should We Then Live? 00:16:22 — Setting the Record Straight on Yudkowsky’s “Airstrike” Claims 00:20:54 — Two Doom Buckets: Misuse vs. Rogue AI 00:24:25 — The Bioweapon Kill Scenario 00:29:02 — The “Benevolent God” Cope 00:33:06 — Epistemology: What We’re Allowed to Know 00:40:08 — Dario’s Country of Geniuses in a Data Center 00:44:37 — The Icarus Curve 00:47:17 — Meaning and Purpose in the AI Era 00:49:32 — Wrap-Up Links Team Futurism on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@teamfuturism3554 Peter Clarke on X — https://x.com/heypeterclarke Liron vs. 9 Rationalists at LessOnline 2026 (the “Surrounded” debate with Peter) — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/will-ai-actually-destroy-humanity AI 2027 — https://ai-2027.com/ “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by Elie…