Episode
Russia Calculated How This War Ends—Putin Won’t Like the Answer
- Published
- Aug 27, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 1134
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Summary
I examine a leaked Sberbank memo outlining eight Russia-Ukraine war endgame scenarios, from a frozen conflict to Russian economic collapse. I assess its probability estimates, Putin’s escalation incentives, Western support, Ukraine’s security needs, and the strategic risks shaping Europe and NATO.00:00 The Leaked Sberbank War Scenarios01:38 Russia’s Decisive-Advantage Scenario03:13 Putin’s Objectives and Continued Mobilization05:13 Western Exhaustion and a Frozen War08:00 The Case for a Protracted War10:21 Compromise Peace and Ukraine’s Terms12:41 Wildcards: Escalation, NATO, and Regime Change14:51 Why Strategic Humility Matters17:32 Evidence, Ukraine, and Moral Courage#UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #Putin #NATOFacts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplainsBuy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdesPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdesYouTube Channel Membership: https://www.yout…