# Russia Calculated How This War Ends—Putin Won’t Like the Answer

Page: https://stenobird.com/podcast/daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811/russia-calculated-how-this-war-ends-putin-won-t-like-the-answer
Text version: https://stenobird.com/podcast/daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811/russia-calculated-how-this-war-ends-putin-won-t-like-the-answer.md
Podcast: [Daily Updates on Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://stenobird.com/podcast/daily-updates-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-7410811)
Published: 2026-08-27T14:00:06+00:00
Episode link: https://ProfessorGerdes.podbean.com/e/russia-calculated-how-this-war-ends%e2%80%94putin-won-t-like-the-answer/
Audio file: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/ijdpt9n64o4f1fko/yt_video_891D5vXeudI_nw249u.mp3
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Duration seconds: 1134

## Resource

I examine a leaked Sberbank memo outlining eight Russia-Ukraine war endgame scenarios, from a frozen conflict to Russian economic collapse. I assess its probability estimates, Putin’s escalation incentives, Western support, Ukraine’s security needs, and the strategic risks shaping Europe and NATO.00:00 The Leaked Sberbank War Scenarios01:38 Russia’s Decisive-Advantage Scenario03:13 Putin’s Objectives and Continued Mobilization05:13 Western Exhaustion and a Frozen War08:00 The Case for a Protracted War10:21 Compromise Peace and Ukraine’s Terms12:41 Wildcards: Escalation, NATO, and Regime Change14:51 Why Strategic Humility Matters17:32 Evidence, Ukraine, and Moral Courage#UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #Putin #NATOFacts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplainsBuy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdesPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdesYouTube Channel Membership: https://www.yout…

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