Episode
Expensive Market. Record Issuance. Can the Story Still Hold It Up? | 6 Things We Learned This Week
- Published
- Jun 22, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 2040
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Summary
This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle. We discuss SpaceX valuation, AI capital spending, IPO mechanics, market overvaluation, the shift from buybacks to issuance, and whether value, small caps and equal weight stocks are starting to reverse years of mega-cap dominance. Topics covered: Why Aswath Damodaran says valuation requires both stories and numbers How investors can evaluate SpaceX without relying only on total addressable market Why IPOs are designed to trade well after issuance How a small public float can influence the perceived value of an entire company Why expensive market valuations do not automatically mean investors should sell everything What history suggests about forward returns when market valuations are extreme Why AI is changing the capital intensity of the Magnificent 7 The underrated role of restraint in business strategy and AI spending How the market is shifting from buybacks to stock issuance Why value, small caps and equal weight stocks may be showing early signs of a reversal Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and this week’s episodes with Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle 04:17 What the SpaceX story needs to justify the valuation 08:56 Why IPO issuers may want the stock to trade up 13:20 Why mean reversion looks harder to trust in today’s market 17:28 How AI CapEx changes the Mag 7 valuation equation 22:21 Why buybacks and issuance matter for stock market supply 27:28 Are value, small caps and equal weight stocks starting to reverse? 31:53 Why market broadening can continue if recession is avoided