Episode
14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026
- Published
- Mar 14, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3893
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Summary
In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities. Topics Covered • Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world • How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes • Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption • The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change • Jim Paulsen’s framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy • Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth • The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right • How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind • Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines • The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy • Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns • The importance of deep research and preparation when unexp…