Episode
China’s $735B Trade Surplus + How Beijing Masks Its Holdings + The G7 Debates Global Imbalances
- Podcast
- The Spillover
- Published
- Jun 2, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3401
- Processing state
not_requested- Canonical source
- https://thespillover.podbean.com/e/tbdtbd/
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Summary
This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to correct them, and how the imbalanced system looks increasingly likely to collapse under its own weight. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Brad W. Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) We discuss: How China’s 2025 current account surplus shattered records at $735 billion, jumping nearly 60 percent in one year. Why China’s overall trade surplus looks modest as a share of its own GDP but is unprecedented in absolute dollar terms, and arguably as a share of the global economy. As CFR expert Brad Setser puts it: “Trade should be two way. We sell to you, you sell to us. Not just one way.” How cheap Chinese goods and bond-buying benefited U.S. consumers and borrowers, even as they hollowed out manufacturing and fueled financial froth. Why China’s real leverage has shifted from dumping U.S. Treasury holdings to controlling rare earths, critical minerals, and permanent magnets the Fed can’t print. How China masks its holdings by moving out of U.S. custodians, leaving official data badly understating what it actually owns. Why the Belt and Road Initiative backfired, turning roughly $1 trillion of influence-buying into resentment and unpaid loans. Why China could let its currency appreciate but won’t, since a weak renminbi keeps the export engine running. Why Chinese leader Xi Jinping refuses to shift toward a consumption-driven model, viewing direct cash transfers as “welfarism.” Why the upcoming G7 summit is unlikely to fix any o…