Episode
5-26-26 Why 20% Market Drops Don't Matter
- Published
- May 26, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 2856
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Summary
Wall Street still defines a "bear market" as a 20% decline, but does that rule still apply in today's market environment? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down why traditional definitions of corrections and bear markets may be obsolete after 17 years of Fed intervention, massive liquidity injections, and historically elevated valuations. We also answer one of the biggest questions investors are asking right now: how do you balance staying invested while also remaining defensive? We discuss risk management, position sizing, portfolio hedging, and how investors can recognize when it may be time to become more cautious without abandoning long-term investment discipline. The conversation also covers the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, how a change in Federal Reserve leadership could impact markets and longer-duration Treasury bonds, and whether slower economic growth remains the most likely long-term outcome. We revisit concerns about market weakness during a Fed transition period and discuss whether the current rally still faces meaningful downside risks. In this episode, we also explain why bond prices decline even when bonds are considered "fixed income," how rising yields impact individual bond prices, and why investors should avoid emotional reactions to short-term bond volatility. We address growing fears surrounding U.S. debt levels, deficit spending, and debt-to-GDP concerns, while pushing back against the nonstop doom-driven narratives dominating financial media and social platforms. Sometimes the best financial decision is to stop reacting emotionally to headlines and focus on long-term financial planning instead. Finally, we discuss one of the biggest behavioral mistakes investors make during strong bull markets: allowing the "tax tail" to wag th…