Episode
#388 Chris Whalen: One Rate Hike Coming, Iran Peace Unlikely, Double-Digit Inflation Inevitable
- Podcast
- The Julia La Roche Show
- Published
- Jul 11, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 2014
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris expects the Federal Reserve will deliver one rate hike before Labor Day despite Warsh's preference to delay—the White House has greenlit it to maintain Warsh's credibility as chairman, and this one hike will likely lead to more because incremental Fed policy changes don't stop at one when fighting inflation. The Iran ceasefire has shattered and won't be fixed: Iran has zero incentive to reach peace with the U.S., wants to tax Strait of Hormuz traffic, and will force Gulf states to build pipelines and avoid the strait entirely—oil refineries won't be rebuilt while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. U.S. oil stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years, diesel is up 30% this year and ripples through every part of the economy, and California is facing potential rationing after it runs down reserves and stops getting refined products from Asia. Whalen stands firm on his double-digit inflation call despite prediction markets showing lower odds, arguing the real economy—not market probabilities—determines consumer and producer behavior, and rising consumer inflation expectations (3.7% one-year) are changing psychology and forcing real estate hedging. Bank earnings next week will reveal whether credit costs continue rising as spreads widen between Treasuries and corporate bonds, signaling medium-term economic slowdown ahead as speculative companies lose financing access. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira866 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen The Entropy Trap: https://www.amazon.co…