Episode
#386 Michael Every: Economic Statecraft Changed Everything, Old Playbook Is Dead, New Era Begins
- Podcast
- The Julia La Roche Show
- Published
- Jul 7, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3041
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Summary
Michael Every, Global Strategist for Economics and Markets at Rabobank, presents a radical framework: everything is now about economic statecraft and geopolitics, not traditional monetary or fiscal policy, meaning central banks, interest rates, and economic structures are all subsets of national security objectives. Central bank models are broken because exogenous geopolitical supply shocks (Iran war, Ukraine, COVID) constantly disrupt equilibrium assumptions, and the old playbook of managing demand through one global interest rate no longer works in a fragmenting world with different sectors having different national security priorities. He warns the biggest risk is far more war ahead, specifically predicting Iran war will resume after the midterms because tolls, sanctions, uranium, and Lebanon remain unresolved—Iran is losing leverage as oil flows increase and the world moves on, so it will need to "rock the boat" to regain attention. Interest rates will trend higher due to massive fiscal pressures on defense spending, reshoring, supply chain security, and infrastructure investment, and differential interest rates will emerge where sectors critical to national security borrow cheaper than speculative sectors. He argues the private sector will be tasked with moonshot innovations (like AI and Manhattan Project-style programs) that governments can't afford alone, with government potentially taking stakes in critical companies like OpenAI and Intel. On the Strait of Hormuz, he dismisses markets pricing 45% chance of normalization before October 1 as too optimistic, noting ships run dark, ship-to-ship transfers hide traffic, and geopolitics will escalate after midterms—Hormuz will never fully normalize as countries build alternatives. America will retain primacy…