Episode
#366 Michael Green: Why A 1987-Style Crash Is Now Almost Inevitable — Here's the Math
- Podcast
- The Julia La Roche Show
- Published
- May 7, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 2327
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 366 to break down what he calls the most important and overlooked structural shift in financial history — the rise of passive investing. Green argues that the market isn't broken in the way most people think: it's not fraud or irrational exuberance, it's the mechanical consequence of a regulatory change in 2006 that turned 401k contributions into an automatic, valuation-blind buying machine. With passive now at 55% of the market — and rising 4% per year — Green shares new research showing that somewhere between 65% and 80%, a 1987-style crash stops being a possibility and becomes nearly inevitable. He also connects the dots between our retirement system, the housing crisis, and why both boomers and millennials are scared — just for completely different reasons. Links: Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/ Timestamps 00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green 1:04 - What "broken markets" actually means today 2:40 - The Costanza market and how Mike's research began 6:21 - Passive went from 2% to 55% of the market since 1992 7:05 - Why passive investing is just momentum with no valuation filter 9:45 - The 2006 Pension Protection Act — the legislation nobody talks about 10:13 - Why Vanguard and Bogle aren't the ones to blame 10:19 - The book: The Greatest Story Ever Sold 10:39 - The academic paper that forced Mike to rewrite the book 13:59 - Type A vs Type B savers — and the snow cone moment 14:35 - Prices don't move because of information. They move because of flows. 15:08 - The threshold: 65–80% passive and the market becomes unstable 16:07 - Why the com…