Episode
The Cold War That Wasn’t
- Podcast
- The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
- Published
- Feb 18, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3710
- Processing state
not_requested- Canonical source
- https://jacobshapiro.com/podcasts/the-cold-war-that-wasnt
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Summary
Louis-Vincent Gave joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack a world that looks chaotic... but may be quietly reordering itself. From a surprising thaw in U.S.–China relations to a potential renaissance in Latin America and Canada, Louis argues that today’s volatility is accelerating deeper structural shifts. He explains why Europe remains fragmented, why energy prices could derail everything, and why investors may be thinking about risk all wrong. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome & Introducing Louis Gave (Gavekal Research) (02:43) - Liberation Day Shocks (05:02) - China De‑Westernizing Supply Chains After 2018 (07:40) - Trump as Accelerant (09:31) - Why a US–China Cold War Is Economically Suicidal (11:50) - Drones Change War (13:47) - The ‘Swamp’ Factor (18:27) - Defense Supply Chains & Rare Earth Dependence (21:19) - Xi’s Priorities (25:47) - Xi’s Security, PLA Purges, and Corruption Crackdowns (31:17) - Xi’s Army Purge (32:37) - US-China Rapprochement (34:36) - Who Wins if the Cold War Ends? (35:58) - Why Latin America Looks Like the Breakout Trade (40:24) - Mexico Risks (42:24) - Bullish Canada (44:37) - Does USMCA Survive? (47:31) - No Army, No Foreign Policy (51:00) - Can Europe Rebuild Real Military Power? (53:27) - Ukraine Endgame (56:23) - What Keeps Louis Up at Night (01:00:32) - Bitcoin vs Diversification (01:01:30) - Closing Thoughts -- Referenced in the Show: Louis-Vincent Gave - https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a spea…