Episode
Has Gold Already Peaked?
- Published
- Mar 11, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 872
- Processing state
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- https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/has-gold-already-peaked
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Summary
Bull markets don’t last forever. When you’re in the throes of one, it can feel like they do. But they don’t, and at a certain point you have to sell. Gold bull markets can feel even more eternal. Not just because the metal itself is eternal, but because the story comes along that we are going back to a gold standard, or that the Great Purge, which many economists of the Austrian school say is inevitable after fifty years of fiat decadence, is finally upon us. I get that argument. But it is too neat, too deterministic. Real life is much more mucky. So today I want to consider a very important question, and I want to try and answer it honestly: Where are we in this bull market? Has gold already peaked? It’s possible. The spike to $5,600/oz at the end of January had many of the hallmarks of a blow-off top. Or perhaps $5,600 was just a mid-cycle peak, such as we saw in 2006 or 1975-76 during previous bull markets. Or is this bull market still in its infancy? I’m going to study this bull market through every lens I can think of: price, time, valuation, participation, market structure, macro context and sentiment. My bias going in is that we are mid-cycle, as I argued in my Great Forecast last week. Let’s see where I end up. 1. Duration There have been two great gold bull markets since the end of the gold standard: 1971-1980 and 2001-2011. Both lasted nine to ten years. When did this one begin? It depends how you define it. You could take the bear-market low of $1,045 in late 2015. You could take the $1,160 retest in 2018. You could take 2019, when gold broke out of its multi-year base. Technical analysis is often in the eye of the beholder. Just like bull markets. You could even argue late 2022, when the current acceleration began. If you start in 2015, this bull market has…