Episode
Why the Fed Is Watching Real Rates More Than Headline CPI
- Published
- Jul 9, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 529
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Summary
In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed is increasingly focused on real interest rates — the nominal rate minus inflation — rather than headline CPI. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate stuck at 2.25 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.53 percent, the real yield sits at roughly 2.3 percent, a level that historically has been restrictive. We look at how this metric influences the central bank's thinking, why it matters for the July FOMC meeting, and what the latest PCE and CPI data say about whether policy is actually tight enough. Touching on Janet Yellen's 2015 playbook and comparing today's real rate to the post-GFC era, we explain why the Fed may hold rates steady even if inflation ticks up. A must-listen for anyone trying to decode the Fed's next move. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #RealRates #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #CPI #PCE #BreakevenInflation #TenYearTreasury #RealYield #Inflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBanking #RateDecision #TIPS #JanetYellen Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo