Episode
Episode 2: Oh My God, Kalshi Killed Polymarket! (Not Really)
- Podcast
- The Event Horizon Podcast
- Published
- Oct 1, 2025
- Duration seconds
- 3097
- Processing state
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Summary
It’s take two of The Event Horizon podcast, as Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto joins me again to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket in trading volume, which has far more nuance to it than just the raw numbers. We also talk about what’s happening at the CFTC (Brian Quintenz was ousted as the nominee since we recorded it), how South Park was a big moment for prediction markets, and what’s going on at a PM startup called Melee. Prediction markets news roundup * Kalshi is launching more baseball markets: On Tuesday, Kalshi self-certified several new types of baseball markets: * The run or no-run first-inning market is a popular way to bet baseball at US sportsbooks. Kalshi is also rolling out runlines (not as popular) and game run totals. * Quintenz out: I sent out a quick newser on Tuesday night that Brian Quintenz is reportedly out as the nominee of the CFTC. This was more or less a formality at this point. The confirmation process was going nowhere, and his replacements were already being vetted by the White House. We’ve just been waiting for the other shoe to drop. * For now, the status quo of Acting Chair Caroline Pham (with no other commissioners) persists, which has undoubtedly been good for the expansion of prediction markets as Kalshi has turned into a robust sports betting exchange unchecked. There are at least some questions about the status quo now, after an advisory put out by the CFTC ; more on that later. The delay in confirming a new CFTC chair has meant that the next nominee might not be able to dodge questions about prediction markets as easily as Quintenz did a few months ago. Kalshi has gotten a lot bigger, and a lot more people are learning about sports betting via prediction markets, including a growin…