Episode
The Hedge Fund that Polls Regular People Where Markets Are Going ?
- Podcast
- The Derivative
- Published
- Apr 9, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 4836
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with Vuk Vukovic and Scott Alford of Oraclum Capital (ORCA) to explore how an academic project on elections turned into a $70M hedge fund powered by crowd predictions. Vuk explains how he and his co-founders, coming from economics, physics, and computer science backgrounds, built a survey-based system that originally nailed events like Brexit and the 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections, then adapted the same framework to financial markets. Scott breaks down how ORCA combines wisdom of crowds, network analysis, and machine learning to identify the best retail predictors each week and turn their aggregated views into directional options trades on the S&P and Nasdaq. They discuss incentives for participants, how they filter noise, why independence and diverse networks matter more than “experts,” the limits of traditional polling, and the rise, and risks, of retail trading and prediction markets. The conversation also touches on political polarization, elite networks, and what it really takes to build a differentiated strategy in today’s markets. SEND IT! Chapters: 00:00-01:34= Intro 01:35-12:38= Origins of ORCA: From Broken Polls to a Crowd-Powered Market Prediction Engine 12:39-21:01= Why Traditional Polls Fail and How Academic Research (and Grants) Really Work 21:02-35:35= Inside ORCA’s Signal: Paying Predictors, Mapping Networks, and Turning Weekly Surveys into Option Trades 35:36-49:49= Timing the Crowd: Weekly Signals, Zero-Dated Options, and How ORCA Differs from Prediction Markets 49:50-1:01:03= Hot Streaks, Crypto Crowds, and Why True Wisdom of Crowds Needs Independent Thinkers 1:01:04-01:20:36= Retail Traders, Polarization, and Building Better Predictors: How ORCA Sees the Future of Markets From the Episode: Youtube: Predict Mar…