Episode
Oil, War, and the Strait of Hormuz: What current events look like through the eyes of an energy trader
- Podcast
- The Derivative
- Published
- Apr 2, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 2905
- Processing state
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Summary
In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with returning “resident oil guy” Brent Belote of Cayler Capital to unpack one of the wildest stretches in energy markets since COVID and Russia/Ukraine. They dig into recent oil volatility, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and why the Straits of Hormuz still matter more than most people think. Brent breaks down how traders are actually navigating this market, from tracking physical flows to managing extreme option volatility, and what could come next. Jeff and Brent also explore how EV adoption, data centers, and grid constraints collide with the energy transition narrative, and what “up $50” or even “up $100” oil scenarios actually look like from a real risk perspective. SEND IT! Chapters: 00:00-01:18= Intro 01:19-04:08= Fluky Winter: Snow, Melt, and the Tetons’ Weird Season 04:09-18:24= Israel/Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the New Oil Shock 18:25-29:55= Closing Hormuz? Tail-Risk Scenarios, Oil Volatility, and $150 Crude 29:56-37:49= Oil’s Binary Future: Hormuz Off-Ramps, $150 Risk, and 24/7 Prediction Markets 37:50-48:25= Beyond Peak Oil: Shale, Venezuela, EV Myths, and an All-of-the-Above Energy Future From the Episode: Whitepaper- A Crude Awakening: How Oil Prices Ripple Through the Global Economy Crude Oil goes Negative… What^%$# on The Derivative OpenSnow’s Joel Gratz built a Pod Shop for Powder Days: the PMs are Meteorologists and the Returns are Faceshots Going Nuclear: How Uranium is Powering Portfolios with Trevor Hall & Justin Huhn Follow along with Brent at LinkedIn and on X @brentbelote - be sure to check out Cayler Capital on LinkedIn and at caylercapital.com Don't forget to subscribe to The Derivative…