Episode
Robin Hanson on Prediction Markets, Gambling, and the Future of Forecasting
- Podcast
- The a16z Show
- Published
- May 26, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 1675
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
Theo Jaffee and Sophia Puccini speak with economist Robin Hanson about prediction markets, gambling, and why he believes speculative markets are one of the most powerful tools humans have for aggregating information and forecasting outcomes. The conversation begins with Minnesota’s recent law criminalizing prediction markets before expanding into the broader backlash surrounding platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains his long-term vision for “decision markets,” where markets could help guide choices made by companies, governments, and even individuals. Along the way, they discuss sports betting, games and human psychology, futurism, AI, and Hanson’s broader work on how societies misunderstand risk, incentives, and coordination