Episode
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) DCF Valuation 2026: What Is the Stock Actually Worth? | Deep Dive Pt. 2
- Podcast
- The 7investing Podcast
- Published
- May 29, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 2927
- Processing state
not_requested
Actions
POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/the-7investing-podcast-1227049/episodes/rocket-lab-nasdaq-rklb-dcf-valuation-2026-what-is-the-stock-actually-worth-deep-dive-pt-2/transcription-requests
Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/the-7investing-podcast-1227049/rocket-lab-nasdaq-rklb-dcf-valuation-2026-what-is-the-stock-actually-worth-deep-dive-pt-2.md
Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.
Summary
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) has been a 20-bagger on the 7investing scorecard, but at $150/share today, is it still a buy? 7investing founder Simon Erickson walks through the 11th iteration of his full discounted cash flow model, projecting Rocket Lab's revenues across three divisions: Electron launches, the upcoming Neutron rocket, and Space Systems manufacturing, all the way out to 2041. The bottom line: using a 10.3% weighted average cost of capital and conservative assumptions, Simon arrives at an intrinsic value of $45.12 per share, up significantly from $27 in last year's model, but still well below today's market price.The bull case for the long-term thesis remains intact. Electron is on pace for 30 launches in 2026, scaling toward 50 annually by 2030. Neutron, expected to launch by year-end at ~$55 million per launch versus Electron's $9 million, represents the single biggest margin step-change in the company's history. And Rocket Lab's total backlog has already jumped from $1.8 billion at year-end 2025 to $2.2 billion in just one quarter, with Simon projecting it reaches $4.3 billion by end of 2026 as Golden Dome, Space Force NSSL, and Space Development Agency contracts come into focus. Space Systems revenue is modeled to grow from $400 million today to $1.6 billion in 2027 and $11 billion by 2041.Simon is clear: the market is pricing in a lot more optimism than his model justifies, and at $150/share he's not adding. His personal buy target is closer to $40–$50. But he's holding every share — because when Neutron succeeds and the acquisition strategy compounds, the upside case is genuinely enormous. This is the most detailed public look at Rocket Lab's valuation you'll find anywhere.Stocks Mentioned:Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB)Varda Space Industries — privateGlobalsta…