Episode
Probability 1: Expected Value — The Ledger of Risk
- Podcast
- Reasonable Hope (Philosophy)
- Published
- Jul 6, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 179
- Processing state
not_requested- Canonical source
- https://rss.com/podcasts/reasonable-hope-philosophy/2966369
Actions
POST https://stenobird.com/v1/public/podcasts/reasonable-hope-philosophy-7847611/episodes/probability-1-expected-value-the-ledger-of-risk/transcription-requests
Idempotently request low-priority transcript generation for this episode.GET https://stenobird.com/podcast/reasonable-hope-philosophy-7847611/probability-1-expected-value-the-ledger-of-risk.md
Read the agent-friendly Markdown representation of this episode resource.
Summary
How do we decide whether something is worth the risk? Expected value is one of the foundational ideas of probability, helping actuaries and insurance companies evaluate uncertain outcomes over the long run. Brian explores how we make similar calculations in everyday life and why true hope looks beyond today’s setbacks to a larger horizon of grace.