Episode
G. Elliott Morris on Vibes and the Midterms
- Podcast
- Paul Krugman Podcast
- Published
- May 16, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 2756
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Summary
For more videos, visit my YouTube channel . I’m away but alas staying in touch with political news at home, and thought I would check in with one of the best public opinion quants about where we stand right now … TRANSCRIPT: Paul Krugman in Conversation with G. Elliott Morris (recorded 5/13/26) Paul Krugman : Hi everyone. Returning today to G. Elliott Morris , my favorite polling and public opinion analyst. We’ve had an eventful time with redistricting and there’s a lot of stuff going on, so we’ll see where this goes. The big news is, of course, the Court leaving Democrats stunned by overruling the referendum with Virginia redistricting, which now gives Republicans a substantial lead. You’ve been doing some analysis. How should we think about how this changes November? G. Elliott Morris : Yeah. Big picture is: as long as Democrats are still winning the popular vote by four points, they’re still taking back the House of Representatives. A lot has changed over the last three weeks. First, the Supreme Court has invalidated section two of the Voting Rights Act. This was the portion of the law that prevented state legislatures or other state bodies from diluting the power of black voters. Krugman : Right. Morris : This, of course, matters for our partisan calculations, because black representatives in the South tend to be Democrats. Now the Supreme Court has said states can divvy up their votes. Republican-led states in the South, including Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana, have since passed, or are about to pass, maps that will take away three Democrats at least, and potentially five. So that is quite a few seats. On top of that, there has been other redistricting news. Virginia voters had passed a constitutional amendment to adopt a Democratic gerrymander that has been s…