Episode
Shingles Shot and Dementia: Could one vaccine protect your brain?
- Published
- Nov 3, 2025
- Duration seconds
- 4298
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Summary
What do chickenpox and shingles have to do with your brain? This week, we dig into two 2025 headline-grabbing studies that link the shingles shot to lower dementia rates. We start in Wales, where a birthday cutoff turned into the perfect natural experiment, and end in the U.S. with a multi-million-person megastudy. Featuring bias-variance Goldilockses, Fozzy-the-Bear regression discontinuities, a Barbie-versus-Oppenheimer showdown for propensity scores – and the hottest rebrand of inverse-probability weighting you’ll ever hear. Statistical topics Absolute vs. relative risk Bias–variance tradeoff Causal inference Censoring Confounding Fuzzy regression discontinuity design Healthy-user bias Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) Longitudinal study Natural experiment Negative controls Optimal bandwidth Propensity scores Selection bias Subgroup analysis Triangular kernel weights Methodological morals “Propensity scores are the lipstick you put on observational pigs.” “Natural experiments are a hot flirtation date with causality.” References Eyting M, Xie M, Michalik F, Heß S, Chung S, Geldsetzer P. A natural experiment on the effect of herpes zoster vaccination on dementia. Nature. 2025 May;641(8062):438-446. doi: 10.1038/s41586-025-08800-x. Epub 2025 Apr 2. PMID: 40175543; PMCID: PMC12058522. Polisky V, Littmann M, Triastcyn A, et al. Varicella-zoster virus reactivation and the risk of dementia. Nat Med . Published online October 6, 2025. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-03972-5 Sainani KL. Propensity scores: uses and limitations. PM&R 2012; 4:693-97. Detailed Show Notes Page Kristin and Regina’s online courses: Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis Medical Statistics Certificate Program Writ…