Episode
Diagnostic Testing: Do the stats tell you what you need to know?
- Published
- Apr 6, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 4011
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Summary
Diagnostic testing: what do those statistics actually tell you? Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value . . . you’ve probably seen these terms before. Maybe you memorized them for a test. But do you actually know what they mean? In this episode, we take a closer look at how diagnostic tests are evaluated—and how they’re often misinterpreted. From a genetic test for cellulite to a blood test for autism, we explore how “statistically significant” findings can turn into tests that don’t actually help anyone. Along the way we meet the freckle gene, the wanderlust gene, and infidelity gene. Statistical topics Base Rate Bayes Rule Case-Control Study Matching Conditional Probability Sensitivity Specificity Positive Predictive Value Prevalence Negative Predictive Value False Positives and Negatives True Positives and Negatives Methodological morals “A biomarker paper is not the same thing as a biomarker test.” “If your sample doesn't match the real world, then for all of your positive predictive value needs, call on Bayes' theorem.” Detailed Show Notes with calculations References Emanuele E, Bertona M, Geroldi D. A multilocus candidate approach identifies ACE and HIF1A as susceptibility genes for cellulite. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology ; 2010. 24: 930-35. https://genomelink.io/traits/cellulite https://www.genexdiagnostics.com/ Ebstein RP, Novick O, Umansky R, et al. Dopamine D4 receptor (D4DR) exon III polymorphism associated with the human personality trait of Novelty Seeking . Nat Genet . 1996;12:78-80. Kluger AN, Siegfried Z, Ebstein RP. A meta-analysis of the association between DRD4 polymorphism and novelty seeking . Mol Psychiatry . 2002;7:712-7. He Y, Martin N, Zhu G, Liu Y. Candidate genes for novelty-seeking: a meta-analy…