Episode
GLOBAL SOVEREIGN DEBT SURVEY - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #51
- Podcast
- Mine Print Hash
- Published
- Dec 19, 2025
- Duration seconds
- 3705
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Summary
TL;DR: Global funding conditions favor US dollar markets as capital migrates from Europe and Japan. The BOJ is the next central bank to watch. The Trump Media/TAE Technologies fusion merger raises significant skepticism. 📄 SUMMARY Global Sovereign Debt Survey Matt Dines walks through a year-end review of global sovereign bond markets, highlighting a key divergence. US dollar-denominated rates are trending down across the US and Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico), while euro-denominated and yen-denominated rates are trending up. - The divergence reflects capital migrating from offshore markets (primarily Europe) into the Western Hemisphere and US domestic markets through New York (4:30). - France and Germany are both at 52-week highs in yields, with French OATs up 51 bps and German Bunds up 60 bps year-over-year (6:00). - Despite popular perception, the core trend in US Treasury yields since the new administration took office has been down, not up. Matt notes that "most people... would say rates are blowing out... not realizing that the core trend since this new administration took office has been down in yields" (11:30). - The US Treasury will focus on using bills at the front end to finance itself, suggesting a steepening yield curve with front end coming down while long end remains supported. Matt sees "green light for expansion of credit in the domestic United States" heading into early 2026 (14:00). - French sovereign debt has tested resistance five times this year with increasing cadence, suggesting "a market that wants to actually break out and move higher" in yields (20:30). - Japan's 10-year debt chart looks "much more concerning" than the US from a portfolio manager perspective (21:30). - A squeeze in global fundi…