Episode
Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 25, 2028 - Breaking the Mold
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- Jun 25, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 1245
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Summary
In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we celebrate the life and times of Alan Greenspan, who died this week at the age of 100. His rich and multi-layered career in which he worked in multiple Presidential administrations and had a close to 19 year tenure as the 18th Chair of the Federal Reserve. The rich phenomena and quotes attributed to him deserve some analysis because of what they teach us about the fabric of markets and the tendency (or not) for patterns to repeat.The first thing to note is the collection of quotes attributed to him, which are in the slides for your viewing pleasure. He clearly relished and practiced the art of deliberate ambiguity in central bank commentary, and coined some pivotal terms, such as “irrational exuberance”. He presided over a relatively stable era, between recessions, in which the triple mandate of low unemployment, low inflation and a low 10 year yield were largely delivered, although there was a challenging “conundrum” towards the end of his tenure when the 10 year yield remained stable despite a steady bout of consecutive rate hikes (17 at one stage). He also gave rise to the Greenspan put, which may have reinforced the concept of “moral hazard” in markets – after 1998 traders believed that Greenspan would step in with monetary easing to steady the stock market. This has been hard to shake and as we saw subsequently in 2008 and during Covid institutions around the world remain ready willing and able to step in most times. The other Greenspan phenomenon was the calling of “irrational exuberance” in markets (pre LTCM in 1997) many years before markets finally cracked in 2000. This is a salutary reminder that markets can be irrational for far longer than one might think.Moving to today’s price action, the oil price has fallen to…