Episode
#204 - Prediction Markets
- Podcast
- Law of Code
- Published
- Jun 30, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 10761
- Processing state
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Summary
Prediction markets are a (poorly understood) multi-billion dollar industry. Polymarket, Kalshi and others processed over $20 billion in April of 2026 alone, while ongoing litigation is now playing out in courts across the country. This podcast is a multi-hour deep dive on prediction markets, starting from conclave betting in 15th century Rome to the CFTC's proposed rulemaking on Rule 40.11 earlier this month. My goal: The internet's most comprehensive explainer on prediction markets. In this episode, you'll hear from the world's leading experts on the legal layer of prediction markets: Josh Sterling, partner at Millbank Bobby DeNault, Head of Enforcement at Kalshi Chris Giancarlo, former Chairman of the CFTC Daniel Wallach, founder of Wallach Legal LLC Stefan Schropp, Senior Regulatory Counsel at Paradigm Sam Enzer, partner at Cahill Gordon & Reindel and co-chair of CahillNXT Paul Grewal, Chief Legal Officer at Coinbase Koleman Strumpf, economics professor at Wake Forest Brad Bourque, Policy Counsel at Hyperliquid Policy Center Thania Charmani, partner at Winston & Taylor Michael Passalacqua, Senior Advisor to CFTC Chairman Selig Jeff Amico, Chief Operating Officer at Gensyn Matt Kalish, co-founder of DraftKings and CEO of Hardscope Dustin Gouker, author of the Event Horizons newsletter By the end of this episode, I promise you'll be in the top percentile for understanding prediction markets, regardless of where you're starting from. (You just might need to listen twice. There's a lot here.) Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:40 16th century papal betting (Koleman Strumpf) 11:13 Insider trading rules on prediction markets (Bobby DeNault) 16:20 The Google search insider case and Rule 180.1 (Sam Enzer) 27:38 Why prediction markets matter (Chris Giancarlo) 33:20 Election be…