Episode
They Don't Want the Smoke
- Podcast
- Geopolitical Cousins
- Published
- Mar 10, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 4336
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello! (01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap (02:15) - Trump War Quotes (02:54) - Menu Metaphor (04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity (07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet (09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic (12:35) - Iran Succession Shock (14:43) - Attack Data and B52s (16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz (20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters (24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk (27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario (30:37) - Trump and Market Downside (32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy (36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building (38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency (40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines (41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace (43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down (45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters (47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran (51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check (53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario (59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down (01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation (01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit -- Referenced in the Show: -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportuni…