Episode
Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell
- Podcast
- Forward Guidance
- Published
- Apr 22, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3529
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk. We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy. We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:31 Global Liquidity Turning Lower 06:24 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy 11:29 Recession Fears vs Data 17:28 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks 23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters 31:56 Warsh and the Next Regime 39:29 What Interest Rates Really Mean 47:13 Positioning for Turbulence 58:08 Where to Follow Michael FOLLOW MICHAEL › X/Twitter – https://x.com/crossbordercap › Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.