Episode
Trump's self created gulf trap
- Podcast
- Explaining History
- Published
- Mar 23, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 1699
- Processing state
processed- Canonical source
- http://explaininghistory.org
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Summary
In this episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we continue our examination of the unfolding crisis in the Persian Gulf—a crisis that has now reached a point where the world may already be past the threshold of avoiding a major economic recession, perhaps even a depression. The situation is grim. Trump, through a combination of staggering incompetence and hubris, has launched America into a conflict it cannot win. The proposed invasion of Kharg Island—Iran's largest refinery—would not bring the Iranians to the negotiating table. It would do what Operation Rolling Thunder and the bombing of North Korea failed to do: it would harden Iranian resolve, because for the regime, this is existential. I explore the historical precedents. The Dardanelles campaign of 1915 shows what happens when great powers attempt to force narrow waterways defended by determined opponents. British and French ships were sunk by mines and coastal batteries; the naval approach was abandoned. The Straits of Hormuz are narrower than the Dardanelles. Any warship that sails through them today would likely be sunk before sunset—not by shore batteries, but by swarms of cheap drones. This is the great inflection point of 21st century warfare. A few hundred drones launched at a carrier group can overwhelm its defensive systems. The era of the aircraft carrier as the unchallenged tool of world order is ending. China has been signalling this for years with its spectacular drone displays over Beijing. The message is clear: "Imagine what we can do if we attach something to them." The geopolitical consequences are already unfolding. Europe is rapidly rapproaching with Russia to secure energy supplies. The Ukraine war will likely be settled in Russia's favour. The special relationship between Britain and Amer…