Episode
The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
- Podcast
- Excess Returns
- Published
- May 30, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 4117
- Processing state
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Summary
In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next. Follow Last Call on Spotify Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts Topics Covered: Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concerns How earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI trade Aahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signals Why demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expect What a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bonds Ben Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlash Why opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issue Brent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market froth Why CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasm How the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocks Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market 05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter 10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop 15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time 20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases 24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out 30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism 34:00 The political backlash against AI…