Episode
The Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report
- Podcast
- Excess Returns
- Published
- Jul 14, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3976
- Processing state
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Summary
Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful. Eric Pachman on X https://x.com/EricPachman Data 4 The People https://www.data4thepeople.com/ Main topics covered Why the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market stories Why unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age Americans The decline in participation among older workers and men How healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growth Why Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending risk What occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare pay The differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleading How crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy prices Why falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retail What the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holders How Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research tools Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis 11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy 18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth 24:18 Why inflation is moving higher 30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil 36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem 44…