Episode
The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
- Podcast
- Excess Returns
- Published
- Apr 11, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 4142
- Processing state
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Summary
Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move. They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration. Topics covered: Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertainty The “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quickly How options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock prices Why call options are historically cheap heading into earnings The mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioning Why options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for markets The divergence between oil prices and equity volatility What the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioning The role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market ranges Key resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upside Timestamps: 00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos 04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations 07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements 11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points 13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship 15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior 18:05 Why positioning has shifted…