Episode
Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried?
- Podcast
- Excess Returns
- Published
- Aug 31, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3748
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent. Follow Last Call on Spotify Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts Topics covered Why ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisions Kevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheap Why seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protection Aahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent target Why demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflation How oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hike Ben Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has responded The four risks facing the Fed and Treasury: oil, fading fiscal stimulus, insurance and private credit stress, and the long end of the Treasury curve Brent Kochuba on why implied volatility and put positioning show a market with very little fear Nvidia options positioning, potential resistance near 250 to 275, and what dealer gamma says about the stock Stanley Druckenmiller's AI-written Wall Street Journal op-ed and what AI-assisted writing means for investment thinking Timestamps 00:00 Midterms, inflation, Fed credibility and options complacency 07:45 Kevin Muir on why midterm volatility may be underpriced 11:55 Why this midterm coul…