Episode
Not a Time for Big Bets | Aahan Menon on What 60 Years of Regime Data Says About Today’s Market
- Podcast
- Excess Returns
- Published
- Jul 23, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3475
- Processing state
not_requested
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Summary
Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets. Aahan Menon on X https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Prometheus Research https://www.prometheus-macro.com Topics covered Why geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficult What Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growth Why AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economy How household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profits Why the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock prices How oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest rates Why demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflation How technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicators The value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro data What macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversification Timestamps 00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets 05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth 09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk 13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits 17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility 22:23 Separating persisten…