Episode
Michael Mauboussin | AI, Base Rates, and Investing in the New Economy
- Podcast
- Excess Returns
- Published
- Apr 2, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 3704
- Processing state
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Summary
In this inaugural episode of our new show, The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu, we explore how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatched—and what that means for investors trying to assess risk, returns, and who ultimately captures value. Subscribe on Spotify Subscribe on Apple The conversation moves from base rates and AI growth expectations to competitive dynamics, capital cycles, and the fundamental shift toward intangible-driven business models that are changing how we think about valuation, moats, and market structure. Papers and Resources Discussed: Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/institutional-investor/insights/consilient-observer/bayes-and-base-rates.html The Impact of Intangibles on Base Rates https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_theimpactofintangiblesonbaserates.pdf Measuring the Moat: Assessing the Magnitude and Sustainability of Value Creation https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_measuringthemoat.pdf One Job: Expectations and the Role of Intangible Investments https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_onejob.pdf Capitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy https://books.google.com/books/about/Capitalism_without_Capital.html?id=J3SYDwAAQBAJ A Better Estimate of Internally Generated Intangible Capital https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01703 Underestimating the Red Queen: Measuring Growth and Maintenance Investments https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_underestimati…