Episode
Why We're NOT Buying Fastly (Even at 22% Growth)
- Podcast
- Chip Stock Investor Podcast
- Published
- Aug 25, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 715
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Summary
Fastly's revenue just re-accelerated into the mid-20% range — but our reverse DCF says the stock still needs 22%+ FCF growth for a decade to justify $26. Here's why that's a hard pass for now. Part 3 of our CDN series puts Fastly under the microscope after comparing it against Cloudflare and Akamai. We walk through our full investment thesis checklist — supply chain position, technology stickiness, revenue model, and capital structure — before running a reverse DCF on Fastly's free cash flow per share. Revenue growth has re-accelerated, and operating margins are improving, but GAAP profitability still lags Cloudflare, stock-based compensation remains elevated relative to revenue, and share dilution is running well above our target threshold. We also look at customer stickiness — including the loss of a major account to Cloudflare — as a proxy for platform depth and competitive moat. The result: Fastly lands on our watchlist rather than our buy list, with a price level flagged for renewed interest if shares pull back meaningfully. We close the series by connecting CDN infrastructure to the broader AI infrastructure buildout, and how a small CDN/cybersecurity basket — anchored by Cloudflare — fits inside a semiconductor and infrastructure-focused portfolio. Research-backed analysis, not a stock tip. Always do your own due diligence. — Members of Semiconductor Insider get our complete company-by-company research, valuation models, and portfolio allocation notes on Cloudflare, Akamai, and Fastly, plus weekly live Q&A and a growing set of tools to build your process: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor If you're getting value from the show, follow so you don't miss the next one. — Disclosure: Some links above are affili…