Episode
TotalEnergies Stock: $6B Profit, 7.5% Yield, ~9x Earnings — So Why We Say BUY
- Published
- Jul 24, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 793
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Summary
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Q2 2026 — TotalEnergies (TTE), the French supermajor and NYSE-listed ADR (1 ADR = 1 ordinary share), reported a blowout Q2 2026: adjusted net income surged 68% YoY to $6.0B and adjusted EPS hit $2.68 per ADR (beat ~$2.66, +71% YoY), on $9.8B of cash flow from operations (+48%) and $13.2B adjusted EBITDA (+27%). The engine was a commodity windfall — Brent averaged ~$104 (+53% YoY) and refining margins nearly tripled — while hydrocarbon production actually fell 4% to 2.4 Mboe/d and Integrated LNG profit dropped 22%. The balance sheet is a fortress (gearing just 13%, net debt ~$19.7B), funding a dividend raised 5.9% and ~$6B/yr of buybacks — a ~7.5% shareholder yield. At ~$86, TTE trades ~9x forward earnings and ~5.4x EV/EBITDA. Even normalizing the oil peak to mid-cycle, our owner-earnings DCF lands fair value ~$95/ADR. Our call: BUY, 4/5. TotalEnergies is one of the world's five Western supermajors — a ~$190B French integrated energy giant spanning oil & gas production, a top-three global LNG business, refining & chemicals, thousands of service stations, and, unusually for Big Oil, a fast-growing Integrated Power arm in renewables and electricity that hedges the energy transition. Q2 2026 was a blowout: adjusted net income +68% YoY to $6.0B, adjusted EPS $2.68 per ADR (+71% YoY, beat ~$2.66), CFFO $9.8B (+48%), adjusted EBITDA $13.2B (+27%), ROE ~16%, gearing cut to 13%. But be honest about the driver — this was a commodity windfall: Brent averaged ~$104 (+53% YoY) on Middle East supply disruption, and TotalEnergies' European refining-margin marker nearly tripled to $13.5/bbl. Segment adjusted operating income: Exploration & Production $3.2B (+64%), Refining & Chemicals $1.8B (x4.6), Marketing & Services $0.5B (+21%), Integrate…