Episode
T-Mobile Stock: It Beat and RAISED Cash Guidance — Then Crashed 11%. So Why We Say BUY
- Published
- Jul 24, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 856
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Summary
T-Mobile US (TMUS) Q2 2026 — T-Mobile US (TMUS), America's postpaid wireless leader, reported a strong Q2 2026: diluted EPS of $2.99 beat the ~$2.60 estimate (+5% YoY), Core Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $9.5B, total service revenue grew 9% to $19.0B (industry-leading), and Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $4.8B — and management RAISED full-year cash guidance (Adjusted FCF to $18.4–$18.8B, operating cash flow to $28.4–$28.8B). Postpaid phone net adds of 777K led the industry (0.80% phone churn) and 5G home broadband added 406K. Yet the stock CRASHED ~10.7% to $170.42 — near its 52-week low, ~35% off its $261.56 high — because total revenue of $22.79B slightly missed, postpaid account adds slowed 13% to 277K, and it was the first quarter in ages without an across-the-board guidance raise. Priced for perfection, it delivered merely excellent. After the crash the stock trades at ~9x FCF, ~6.9x EV/EBITDA and a ~10% FCF yield. Our call: BUY, 4/5, fair value ~$230. T-Mobile US is the un-carrier — the disruptor that stormed from number three to America's number-one postpaid wireless company, and after absorbing Sprint it runs the deepest 5G network in the country (a record NPS of 46 and a clean sweep of the independent network awards). Q2 2026 was a genuinely good quarter: diluted EPS of $2.99 beat (~+5% YoY), total service revenue rose 9% to $19.0B (industry-leading), postpaid service revenue jumped 13% to $15.9B, Core Adjusted EBITDA grew 12% to $9.5B, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow hit $4.8B. Postpaid PHONE net adds of 777K led the entire industry with phone churn of just 0.80%, and 5G home broadband added 406K. Management even RAISED full-year cash guidance — Adjusted FCF to $18.4–$18.8B and operating cash flow to $28.4–$28.8B — while reiterating account growth (950K–1.05M) and Cor…