Episode
STZ Stock: 12x Earnings, And Buffett Bailed - Q1 FY2027
- Published
- Jul 1, 2026
- Duration seconds
- 578
- Processing state
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- https://chargedalpha.podbean.com/e/stz-stock-12x-earnings-and-buffett-bailed-q1-fy2027/
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Summary
STZ (Constellation Brands) reported Q1 FY2027 earnings on 2026-06-30. Stock fell 13.9% on the print. Here's the breakdown: Is STZ a buy, hold, or sell after this quarter? In this Constellation Brands (STZ) Q1 FY2027 earnings breakdown we cover the revenue and EPS print, the 8-quarter trend, segment detail, the free-cash-flow bridge, forward guidance, peer valuation, and management & earnings quality - ending with a clear price-aware Buy / Hold / Avoid Call and a Wall Street consensus comparison. If you follow Consumer stocks or STZ earnings, this is the Q1 FY2027 deep dive. 🎧 Listen on Podbean: https://chargedalpha.podbean.com (also on Apple Podcasts & Spotify) 🔔 Subscribe for daily earnings deep-dives → @ChargedAlpha | Call tracker: chargedalpha.com THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $139.13 - HOLD - BUY below $125.00 with $115.00 stop - AVOID above $185.00 TRIGGER: Beer depletions turning positive again - Modelo and Corona re-accelerating - OR clear relief on the Mexican-import and aluminum tariffs. WINDOW: Through Q2 FY2027 earnings (early October 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/STZ WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 5 Strong Buy / 10 Buy / 7 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - BUY - Median 12-month price target: $172.00 (range $152 - $195) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: IN LINE, MORE CAUTIOUS THESIS Constellation is the dominant US importer of premium Mexican beer - Modelo and Corona - a high-margin, cash-rich franchise trading at 12 times earnings because the market fears its volume growth is over. Bull lever: If beer depletions stabilize and tariffs are managed, a 12-times multiple with a 7 percent free-cash-flow yield and buybacks re-rates a defensive, share-gaining staple that the market has left for dead. Key risk: If Modelo and Coro…